The right choice? Not sure I get you there. Tell me more about that.
Family obligations before brewing, things like that.
Thanks. I'm a sociologist and when I see what looks like changing trends in behavior, I have to try to figure out the genesis of that change.
@Stand notes the role of the great recession in all this, and
@passedpawn indicates 2012 was the peak here, which is consistent with
@Stand's idea.
I was looking for two things: first, if others have seen this trend or am I just dreaming it or mistaking the data. Second, the why.
I read a lot of things about the state of the economy, joblessness, people being able to make ends meet, and there seems to be a bifurcating economy--lots of people doing well, but maybe just as many doing poorly. Lots of indicators right now that we're heading into another recession, which would be one possible reason for an uptick in people returning to homebrewing.
To me, there would be a lot more home brewers if people ran into me. I could tell them how easy it is and how fast it can be and you only need a pot etc. It can be cheap and fun.
Too often new brewers run into people, and I wont mention any names, if a new brewer runs into them they will likely never see a place for themselves brewing. Brewing has to be some huge trip, it's got to be the best, world class, otherwise just go buy it. Anyone want to venture a guess how many times I have been told on this forum, why dont I just go buy beer if I am going to fill in the blank (not use fermentation fridge, warm ferment lagers, brew quick, etc). Think about the meaning of just go buy it. That means why dont you not hb! And why, because I dont believe in everything they believe?
I've wondered if I am no longer the best ambassador for encouraging people to brew. My setup has grown and I've gotten so much into weird things (Lodo, etc.) that a newbie is probably going to be intimidated or turned off by it. So I have to be careful locally. I can encourage here on HBT, and I do, and I have experience with both traditional mash tun and BIAB so I can speak knowledgeably on both, but when people see my setup, they can't see themselves getting there due to cost.
It could take a whole weekend, you have to have all this equipment, lodo!, mash ph, water chemistry, refractometers, calculations, and on and on. The new brewers are going I dont think I can do all that. The aha stated brewers were white men in their 40s with beards who are scientist's.
Actually, that's why I think new brewers should focus on process, not ingredients. IMO, the best way for a new brewer to start is to have someone make all the choices for them (recipe, water, crush, temps, etc.), with the new brewer telling them what style they'd like to brew. Then walk them through the process. I did that with a buddy; he wanted to brew an IPA, chose a recipe, I did all the ingredients, the starter, got the water right, etc. etc. etc. All he had to do was brew, and then, when the time came, he could figure out if he wanted why the water was right, the mash temp was right, ferm temp was right, all of that.
Not that hard to intimidate/turn off new brewers with arcane language and obscure brewing techniques. All that does is trumpet how smart someone thinks they are. I remember when I was a newbie how ignorant I was about brewing and all this stuff I now know. I really do remember.
When I first started I was told, and those muppets still believe that, at a lhbs in Denver that Biab wasn't "real" brewing. It was some less than brewing technique. Heck someone on this thread was involved in a 5 page argument about how 3v was the only way to brew.
I think that's funny...and sad. The only criterion as to what constitutes "real" brewing--to me--is this: how does it taste? When I first did BIAB and produced beer I couldn't distinguish from that made with a traditional mash tun, it was patently clear to me: BIAB is real brewing. The proof is in the beer it produces.
I mean no offense by any of this, but if we want more new brewers, some of us need to tone down our beliefs a little when dealing with new brewers. When's the last time someone on this thread said to a new brewer, hell, you dont even have to boil the wort and you can make beer. I have. Some of you may think that was wrong of me. But it's so true. A new brewer could dump extract, water, hops and yeast in a bucket and have a plenty quaffable beer. If I would have listened to the guys at the lhbs and trusted them, I wouldn't be brewing either.
I agree with you--to a point. Yeah, you can make beer with loosey-goosey brewing processes, but I think brewers are better served by trying to eliminate process errors, at least as much as possible at the outset. When I taught my buddy all-grain and he had a taste of that beer he brewed (with my kibbitzing), his reaction was "Wow!" And he was hooked. With a new brewer, I want that first taste of their first beer to be exactly that--WOW!
To answer the question I believe brewing will remain on the decline until, and it's already happening, things like gf and zymatic become cheaper, and two brew dogma is not shared with new brewers.
It's been on the decline, but I'm wondering if we're seeing a bottoming-out. Some of the decline, I'm sure, has been people preferring to buy craft beer rather than taking the time to brew it themselves. And maybe the newer automatic systems will reduce the effort involved and keep more people at it.
